PSG 3-1 Auxerre — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 May 2025

PSG
3-1 HT 0-1
Auxerre
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Auxerre Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.16
Draw
18%
7.13
Away
15%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
4.0
Over 2.5
67%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.81
No
42%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
16%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
5%
2/1
12%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
82%
-14.7pp
18%
Draw
11%
+6.9pp
15%
Away Win
7%
+7.9pp
33%
Under 2.5
22%
+11.6pp
67%
Over 2.5
78%
-11.6pp
58%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.3pp
42%
BTTS No
49%
-6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Auxerre — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Auxerre EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +13%
2.43/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/2.12
+10% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +75% / +1%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
508 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 78%
35.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
15.8 Crosses 13.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

PSG vs Auxerre Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Auxerre
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
2.22 xG 0.63
65% Ball Possession 34%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
626 Passes 304
90% Pass Accuracy 79%
36 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2024 Auxerre Auxerre 0-0 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FR1
21.05.2023 Auxerre Auxerre 1-2 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FR1
13.11.2022 PSG PSG 5-0 HT 1-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1
30.05.2015 Auxerre Auxerre 0-1 HT 0-0 PSG PSG FRK
15.04.2012 Auxerre Auxerre 1-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
04.12.2011 PSG PSG 3-2 HT 0-0 Auxerre Auxerre FR1

PSG 3-1 Auxerre — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Auxerre
3.11 xG 0.56
67% Ball Possession 33%
21 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
602 Passes 255
91% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 8
20 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH PSG vs Auxerre
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG saw off Auxerre 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (67%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, PSG had 67% of the ball to Auxerre's 33%, shots finished 21-7, expected goals 3.11 to 0.56.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 0.67 for Auxerre.

What was the final score of PSG vs Auxerre?

PSG 3-1 Auxerre in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Auxerre?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split PSG 67%, draw 18%, Auxerre 15%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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