Saint-Etienne 2-3 Toulouse — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 May 2025

Saint-Etienne
2-3 HT 1-2
Toulouse
📅17/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
37%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.23
Over 2.5
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.44
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
27%
2.76
6+ Goals
11%
7.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.13
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
27.0
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.54
X/2
8%
6.65
X/X
9%
5.6
2/1
6%
22.9
2/2
17%
4.15
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.6pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.4pp
37%
Away Win
33%
+4.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.5pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Saint-Etienne v Toulouse — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Toulouse EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +5%
1.53/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.06
+2% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 79%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.1 Crosses 16.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Saint-Etienne
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Toulouse
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.52 xG 1.45
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
359 Passes 295
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.12.2024 Toulouse Toulouse 2-1 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
15.09.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-2 HT 1-2 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
28.04.2019 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 2-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
25.09.2018 Toulouse Toulouse 2-3 HT 0-1 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1
14.01.2018 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
29.10.2017 Toulouse Toulouse 0-0 HT 0-0 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne FR1

Saint-Etienne 2-3 Toulouse — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Saint-Etienne
2-3
AWAY Toulouse
1.33 xG 3.19
57% Ball Possession 43%
18 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 6
530 Passes 375
90% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 39
30 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toulouse nicked a narrow win over Saint-Etienne 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 24% / 37%) promised a tight game; Toulouse found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Saint-Etienne had 57% of the ball to Toulouse's 43%, shots finished 18-17, expected goals 1.33 to 3.19 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toulouse's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saint-Etienne had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Saint-Etienne and 1.00 for Toulouse.

What was the final score of Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse?

Saint-Etienne 2-3 Toulouse in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Saint-Etienne vs Toulouse?

Before kick-off our model rated a Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Saint-Etienne 38%, draw 24%, Toulouse 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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