Marsilya 4-2 Rennes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.61
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.51
Over 2.5
60%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
58%
-6.9pp
24%
Draw
22%
+2.3pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+4.5pp
40%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.9pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Rennes EU Bookmakers 24%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -28%
1.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.55
-1% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
439 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 81%
27.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.0
20.8 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Rennes
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.15 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
408 Passes 363
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
19 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
11.01.2025 Rennes Rennes 1-2 HT 1-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
17.03.2024 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 1-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
21.01.2024 Rennes Rennes 1-1 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FRK
03.12.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 2-0 HT 1-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
05.03.2023 Rennes Rennes 0-1 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
20.01.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
4-2
AWAY Rennes
3.99 xG 1.26
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
506 Passes 299
89% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 14
8 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Rennes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya got the better of Rennes 4-2. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Marsilya as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Marsilya had 61% of the ball to Rennes's 39%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 3.99 to 1.26.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Marsilya and 0.67 for Rennes.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Rennes?

Marsilya 4-2 Rennes in the France - Ligue 1 on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Rennes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 51%, draw 24%, Rennes 25%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marsilya), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Marsilya) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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