Urawa Red Diamonds 3-2 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
31%
3.18
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.23
6+ Goals
10%
21.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 32% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.8
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.0
X/1
12%
4.51
X/2
7%
7.52
X/X
13%
4.27
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
12%
6.12
2/X
11%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.4pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.0pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +7%
1.32/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.32
+5% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -7%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
411 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 78%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
16.3 Crosses 14.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
1W-2D-3L
AWAY FC Tokyo
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 0.72
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
421 Passes 330
83% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.09.2024 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-2 HT 0-2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
03.04.2024 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-1 HT 0-1 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
08.07.2023 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
18.02.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 2-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
10.07.2022 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
10.04.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-0 HT 0-0 Urawa Red Diamonds Urawa Red Diamonds JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Urawa Red Diamonds
3-2
AWAY FC Tokyo
2.28 xG 2.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 6
411 Passes 364
85% Pass Accuracy 84%
35 Box Touches 22
22 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Urawa Red Diamonds edged past FC Tokyo 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Urawa Red Diamonds as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Urawa Red Diamonds had 53% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 47%, shots finished 22-10, expected goals 2.28 to 2.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Tokyo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Urawa Red Diamonds and 1.00 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo?

Urawa Red Diamonds 3-2 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Urawa Red Diamonds win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Urawa Red Diamonds 43%, draw 31%, FC Tokyo 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Urawa Red Diamonds) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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