UCV 3-2 Deportivo La Guaira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Venezuela - Premier League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.57
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.6
Over 2.5
40%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
35%
-2.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+1.0pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.3pp
60%
Under 2.5
59%
+1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
41%
-1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.9pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UCV EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo La Guaira EU Bookmakers 38%
+4% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +19%
1.17/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.22
+24% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +28%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
268 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 77%
16.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.3
19.1 Crosses 16.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UCV
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Deportivo La Guaira
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.97 xG 0.90
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
277 Passes 285
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2025 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 2-2 HT 2-1 UCV UCV VEN
03.09.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 2-0 HT 1-0 UCV UCV VEN
12.07.2024 UCV UCV 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VENK
26.05.2024 UCV UCV 0-2 HT 0-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
27.04.2024 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira 0-2 HT 0-1 UCV UCV VEN
16.03.2024 UCV UCV 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo La Guaira Deportivo La Guaira VEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UCV
3-2
AWAY Deportivo La Guaira
1.80 xG 1.72
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 6
112 Passes 339
63% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 32
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UCV vs Deportivo La Guaira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UCV nicked a narrow win over Deportivo La Guaira 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 31% / 36% — and on the day UCV made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UCV had 30% of the ball to Deportivo La Guaira's 70%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.80 to 1.72.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Deportivo La Guaira led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for UCV and 1.17 for Deportivo La Guaira.

What was the final score of UCV vs Deportivo La Guaira?

UCV 3-2 Deportivo La Guaira in the Venezuela - Premier League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UCV vs Deportivo La Guaira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo La Guaira win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split UCV 33%, draw 31%, Deportivo La Guaira 36%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo La Guaira) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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