Genoa vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Genoa v Milan — Team-Based Signals
Genoa vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Genoa 1-2 Milan — Actual Match Statistics
Milan edged past Genoa 2-1 away from home. It stood 0-0 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 46% and both teams to score at 48%. At 1.72 (~58%), the BTTS-no price was shorter than our number — the market leaned harder than we did.
Under the surface, possession split 62% to 38% in Genoa's favour, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.32 to 1.75.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 0.83 a game for Genoa against 1.50 for Milan.
Genoa vs Milan Result & Final Score
Genoa 1 - 2 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Genoa vs Milan Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Genoa 18%, draw 25%, Milan 57%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.