Atletico Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kanada - Premier League, 17 May 2026

📅17/05/2026 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
32%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.86
Over 2.5
50%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.11
2-3 Goals
43%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.38
6+ Goals
11%
13.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 26% vs market 25.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
39%
+5.8pp
23%
Draw
28%
-4.5pp
32%
Away Win
33%
-1.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Ottawa EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY HFX Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +10%
1.61/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.17
+20% / +56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +22%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
345 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.3
13.4 Crosses 16.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Ottawa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY HFX Wanderers
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 1.50
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
384 Passes 348
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.10.2025 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
19.07.2025 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-0 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
24.05.2025 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
05.04.2025 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 2-2 HT 0-1 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
29.09.2024 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa 1-1 HT 1-0 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers KAPL
24.08.2024 HFX Wanderers HFX Wanderers 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Ottawa Atletico Ottawa KAPL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Ottawa
1-0
AWAY HFX Wanderers
0.46 xG 1.68
62% Ball Possession 38%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
610 Passes 346
91% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 17
1 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Ottawa nicked a narrow win over HFX Wanderers 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Atletico Ottawa as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Atletico Ottawa had 62% of the ball to HFX Wanderers's 38%, shots finished 9-9, expected goals 0.46 to 1.68 — the balance of chances actually favoured HFX Wanderers.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Ottawa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atletico Ottawa and 1.00 for HFX Wanderers.

What was the final score of Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers?

Atletico Ottawa 1-0 HFX Wanderers in the Kanada - Premier League on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Ottawa vs HFX Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Ottawa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atletico Ottawa 45%, draw 23%, HFX Wanderers 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Ottawa) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Ottawa) ✗ BTTS Yes
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