Katowice 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 17 May 2026

Katowice
2-2 HT 1-1
Jagiellonia Bialystok
📅17/05/2026 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2025/2026

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.27
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
30%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.29
Over 2.5
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.49
No
41%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.42
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
28%
2.69
6+ Goals
11%
7.32
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.28
1/2
6%
24.8
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1 EV+ ✗
18%
5.69
X/2
11%
6.22
X/X
10%
5.51
2/1
7%
23.1
2/2
14%
3.76
2/X
5%
12.45
Value flag · X/1 at 5.69 — our 18% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
40%
+7.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.0pp
30%
Away Win
35%
-4.3pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.9pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
63%
-3.9pp
41%
BTTS No
37%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Katowice v Jagiellonia Bialystok — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katowice EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 38%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / -1%
1.45/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.61
+16% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +5%
46% Ball Possession 54%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
262 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 388 · 83%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.5
23.1 Crosses 14.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.4

Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katowice
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.86 xG 1.49
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 6
295 Passes 411
80% Pass Accuracy 83%
26 Box Touches 34
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.03.2026 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 HT 2-0 Katowice Katowice POL
04.12.2025 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK
02.03.2025 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL
25.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 3-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
31.10.2018 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POLK

Katowice 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katowice
2-2
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.20 xG 2.17
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 9
232 Passes 373
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 46
13 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katowice and Jagiellonia Bialystok couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Katowice at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Katowice had 41% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 59%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 1.20 to 2.17.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Katowice and 1.00 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Katowice 2-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 17/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katowice vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katowice win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Katowice 48%, draw 22%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Katowice) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Katowice) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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