Santa Fe 1-0 Once Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 17 Jun 2025

📅17/06/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.74
Over 2.5
37%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.95
No
60%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
54%
-6.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.8pp
63%
Under 2.5
54%
+9.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
46%
-9.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.3pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
1.17/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.05
+5% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +7%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
367 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 75%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.9
20.3 Crosses 13.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Fe
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Once Caldas
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
0.89 xG 0.70
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
226 Passes 313
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
13 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.06.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-2 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
16.03.2025 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
09.11.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 2-1 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
24.05.2024 Santa Fe Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
19.05.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-0 HT 0-0 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
17.04.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 0-1 HT 0-1 Santa Fe Santa Fe KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Fe
1-0
AWAY Once Caldas
2.10 xG 0.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 0
223 Passes 296
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 13
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Santa Fe vs Once Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Fe nicked a narrow win over Once Caldas 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Santa Fe as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, Santa Fe had 45% of the ball to Once Caldas's 55%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 2.10 to 0.64 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santa Fe's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Fe had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Santa Fe and 0.33 for Once Caldas.

What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

Santa Fe 1-0 Once Caldas in the Colombia - Primera on 17/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Fe vs Once Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Santa Fe 47%, draw 29%, Once Caldas 24%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Fe), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Fe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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