Aktobe 0-1 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 17 Jul 2025

📅17/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
45%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under
53%
1.78
Over
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No Pick
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.87
2-3
45%
1.74
4-5
19%
3.75
6+
7%
16.45
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.87 — our 29% vs market 28.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
26%
Home Win
21%
+4.3pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.5pp
45%
Away Win
54%
-8.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.3pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aktobe The Market 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova The Market 57%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
0.40/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.63
-63% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +53%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 418 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aktobe
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
10.07.2025 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-0 HT 1-0 Aktobe Aktobe AVL
28.08.2014 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 2-0 HT 1-0 Aktobe Aktobe AVL
21.08.2014 Aktobe Aktobe 0-1 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aktobe
0-1
AWAY Legia Varşova
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aktobe vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Legia Varşova squeezed past Aktobe 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Legia Varşova as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Aktobe had 46% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 54%, shots finished 11-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Legia Varşova led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Aktobe and 1.33 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Aktobe vs Legia Varşova?

Aktobe 0-1 Legia Varşova in the UEFA Europa League on 17/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aktobe vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated an Legia Varşova win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aktobe 26%, draw 30%, Legia Varşova 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Legia Varşova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Legia Varşova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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