Aucas 0-3 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 17 Jul 2026

📅17/07/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.32
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
45%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.67
Over 2.5
47%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.9
No
49%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.7pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
45%
Away Win
45%
-0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aucas EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 49%
+18% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +23%
1.35/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.98
+32% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / +2%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
230 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
18.2 Crosses 15.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aucas
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.90 xG 1.27
42% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
247 Passes 362
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.03.2026 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-2 HT 2-1 Aucas Aucas EKV1
19.07.2025 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
29.03.2025 Aucas Aucas 1-2 HT 1-2 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
01.09.2024 Aucas Aucas 0-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.03.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-0 Aucas Aucas EKV1
12.11.2023 Aucas Aucas 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aucas
0-3
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.44 xG 2.52
11 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 3
485 Passes 397
17 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 9
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle cruised past Aucas 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.44 to 2.52.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Aucas and 1.50 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Aucas 0-3 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 17/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aucas vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aucas 30%, draw 25%, Independiente Del Valle 45%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✗ Under 2.5
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