LASK Linz 0-1 Salzburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
46%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.51
Over 2.5
53%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.49
2-3 Goals
38%
2.01
4-5 Goals
25%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.42
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.11
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.25
1/X
5%
13.65
X/1
9%
8.07
X/2
18%
4.64
X/X
12%
6.19
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
18%
2.4
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.25 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-3.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.6pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME LASK Linz EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Salzburg EU Bookmakers 54%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.54/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.26
+11% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
279 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 73%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
16.5 Crosses 15.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME LASK Linz
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Salzburg
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.43 xG 1.79
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 7
266 Passes 273
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
19.05.2024 Salzburg Salzburg 7-1 HT 3-1 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
12.04.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 3-1 HT 2-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
09.03.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 0-1 HT 0-1 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
02.02.2024 LASK Linz LASK Linz 2-3 HT 1-2 Salzburg Salzburg AUK
21.10.2023 Salzburg Salzburg 0-1 HT 0-1 LASK Linz LASK Linz AVU
14.05.2023 LASK Linz LASK Linz 0-1 HT 0-0 Salzburg Salzburg AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME LASK Linz
0-1
AWAY Salzburg
0.91 xG 1.08
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
442 Passes 356
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
30 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH LASK Linz vs Salzburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Salzburg squeezed past LASK Linz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Salzburg as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, LASK Linz had 54% of the ball to Salzburg's 46%, shots finished 13-16, expected goals 0.91 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Salzburg led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for LASK Linz and 2.17 for Salzburg.

What was the final score of LASK Linz vs Salzburg?

LASK Linz 0-1 Salzburg in the Austria - Bundesliga on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for LASK Linz vs Salzburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Salzburg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split LASK Linz 30%, draw 24%, Salzburg 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Salzburg) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Salzburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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