Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 Albirex Niigata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 17 Aug 2024

📅17/08/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.57
Draw
29%
2.94
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2.22
2-3 Goals
37%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.57
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.13
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.35
X/1
18%
5.27
X/2 EV+ ✓
20%
5.22
X/X
17%
3.56
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
8%
4.08
2/X
6%
14.35
Value flag · X/2 at 5.22 — our 20% vs market 14.6%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
35%
+1.0pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
35%
Away Win
34%
+0.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.5pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Albirex Niigata EU Bookmakers 38%
+2% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.00/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.07
-27% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / +45%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
262 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 427 · 81%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
18.9 Crosses 15.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Albirex Niigata
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.69 xG 1.13
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
234 Passes 576
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
21 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
25.05.2024 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
18.08.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 HT 0-1 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JAP
24.05.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
15.04.2023 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 3-2 HT 0-2 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
08.03.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata JLK
14.10.2020 Albirex Niigata Albirex Niigata 1-2 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
0-1
AWAY Albirex Niigata
0.24 xG 1.34
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 18
1 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
189 Passes 570
74% Pass Accuracy 91%
9 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 24
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Albirex Niigata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Albirex Niigata squeezed past Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 29% / 35% — and on the day Albirex Niigata made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 29% of the ball to Albirex Niigata's 71%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.24 to 1.34.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 1.17 for Albirex Niigata.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Albirex Niigata?

Avispa Fukuoka 0-1 Albirex Niigata in the Japan - J1 League on 17/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Albirex Niigata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avispa Fukuoka win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 36%, draw 29%, Albirex Niigata 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avispa Fukuoka) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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