Aris Saloniki 2-1 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 17 Aug 2025

📅17/08/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
20%
3.63
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.83 — our 30% vs market 27.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.24
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.45
X/1
18%
4.09
X/2
7%
9.16
X/X
19%
4.7
2/1
7%
24.5
2/2
14%
7.65
2/X
4%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.3pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aris Saloniki EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 23%
-70% / -70% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.47
-45% / -63% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
417 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aris Saloniki
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.79 xG 1.24
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
417 Passes 279
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
14 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.05.2025 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 4-2 HT 2-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
29.03.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
23.12.2024 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-1 HT 0-1 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
31.08.2024 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 1-1 HT 0-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
03.01.2024 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 3-2 HT 1-2 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki YUN
03.09.2023 Aris Saloniki Aris Saloniki 3-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aris Saloniki
2-1
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
69% Ball Possession 31%
21 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aris Saloniki squeezed past Asteras Tripolis 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Aris Saloniki as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Aris Saloniki had 69% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 31%, shots finished 21-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aris Saloniki had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Aris Saloniki and 1.67 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis?

Aris Saloniki 2-1 Asteras Tripolis in the Friendlies on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aris Saloniki vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aris Saloniki win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Aris Saloniki 45%, draw 28%, Asteras Tripolis 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aris Saloniki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aris Saloniki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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