Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Toluca v Pumas UNAM — Team-Based Signals
Toluca vs Pumas UNAM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-1
Toluca
MEK
3-1
HT 3-1
Toluca
MEK
2-2
HT 0-1
Pumas UNAM
MEK
Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM — Actual Match Statistics
Toluca and Pumas UNAM shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.
Our pre-match lean was Toluca at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (59%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Toluca had 71% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 29%, shots finished 23-6, expected goals 2.18 to 0.70.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.33 for Pumas UNAM.
What was the final score of Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?
Toluca 1-1 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 17/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Toluca vs Pumas UNAM?
Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Toluca 52%, draw 26%, Pumas UNAM 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Toluca) went the other way.