Gnistan 3-2 Ilves Tampere — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 17 Aug 2026

📅17/08/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.18
Over
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.31
2-3
37%
1.88
4-5
27%
2.91
6+
12%
8.57
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.96
1/2
6%
24.5
1/X
6%
12.3
X/1
20%
6.46
X/2
9%
5.87
X/X
12%
5.25
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
19%
3.41
2/X
5%
12.15
Value flag · X/1 at 6.46 — our 20% vs market 11.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
44%
Home Win
35%
+8.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
33%
Away Win
39%
-5.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.5pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gnistan The Market 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Ilves Tampere The Market 43%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.66/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.32
+37% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -6%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
364 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 81%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
20.4 Crosses 15.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gnistan
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.27 xG 2.42
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
268 Passes 372
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 33
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.05.2026 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-0 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
25.10.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 1-3 HT 0-1 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
23.09.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 3-2 HT 1-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
04.08.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
01.06.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-2 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
28.05.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 3-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gnistan
3-2
AWAY Ilves Tampere
1.54 xG 0.84
25 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
304 Passes 340
33 Box Touches 19
36 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gnistan nicked a narrow win over Ilves Tampere 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gnistan as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 1.54 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ilves Tampere led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gnistan and 2.00 for Ilves Tampere.

What was the final score of Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere?

Gnistan 3-2 Ilves Tampere in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 17/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gnistan vs Ilves Tampere?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gnistan win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Gnistan 44%, draw 23%, Ilves Tampere 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gnistan), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gnistan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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