Ilves Tampere 3-2 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 23 Sep 2025

📅23/09/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.49
Away
19%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.74
Over 2.5
55%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.33
2-3 Goals
39%
2.14
4-5 Goals
26%
2.56
6+ Goals
12%
5.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.7
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
16%
4.22
X/2
5%
13.4
X/X
7%
7.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
18.25
2/2
8%
9.59
2/X
6%
17.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.25 — our 8% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
65%
-3.9pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.6pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
33%
+12.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
67%
-12.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.1pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ilves Tampere EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 19%
-6% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.84/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.68
+4% / -36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -18%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 79%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
16.3 Crosses 14.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ilves Tampere
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Gnistan
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.40
1.92 xG 1.43
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 7
388 Passes 198
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
30 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2025 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 2-2 HT 1-1 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
01.06.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 0-2 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
28.05.2025 Gnistan Gnistan 3-0 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİK
01.09.2024 Gnistan Gnistan 1-1 HT 0-0 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere FİN
13.04.2024 Ilves Tampere Ilves Tampere 4-6 HT 2-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ilves Tampere
3-2
AWAY Gnistan
2.40 xG 2.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
364 Passes 352
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
38 Box Touches 34
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ilves Tampere squeezed past Gnistan 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ilves Tampere as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Ilves Tampere had 50% of the ball to Gnistan's 50%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 2.40 to 2.11.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Gnistan led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Ilves Tampere and 2.40 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Ilves Tampere 3-2 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 23/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ilves Tampere vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ilves Tampere win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Ilves Tampere 61%, draw 19%, Gnistan 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ilves Tampere), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ilves Tampere) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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