Everton 1-1 Southampton — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.12
2-3 Goals
39%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
11%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 27% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.98
1/2
6%
30.5
1/X
5%
12.35
X/1
13%
5.1
X/2
15%
6.75
X/X
16%
5.02
2/1
7%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.42
2/X
8%
12.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.0pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+2.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.1pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Everton EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Southampton EU Bookmakers 34%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.22/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/0.73
-34% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +150%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
355 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 78%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.3 Crosses 22.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Everton
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Southampton
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.26 xG 1.25
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
307 Passes 362
75% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
14.01.2023 Everton Everton 1-2 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
01.10.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 0-0 Everton Everton İNP
19.02.2022 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 0-0 Everton Everton İNP
14.08.2021 Everton Everton 3-1 HT 0-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
01.03.2021 Everton Everton 1-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
25.10.2020 Southampton Southampton 2-0 HT 2-0 Everton Everton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Everton
1-1
AWAY Southampton
1.48 xG 0.57
26% Ball Possession 74%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
209 Passes 726
80% Pass Accuracy 92%
23 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Everton vs Southampton
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Everton and Southampton shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Everton had 26% of the ball to Southampton's 74%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.48 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Everton and 1.33 for Southampton.

What was the final score of Everton vs Southampton?

Everton 1-1 Southampton in the England - League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Everton vs Southampton?

Before kick-off our model rated a Everton win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Everton 38%, draw 29%, Southampton 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Everton) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Everton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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