Stoke City 1-1 Fleetwood Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - League Cup, 17 Sep 2024

📅17/09/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
28%
4.08
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.15
Over 2.5
46%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.23
2-3 Goals
40%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
3.01
6+ Goals
10%
9.26
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.23 — our 29% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.88
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.5
X/1
16%
3.76
X/2
6%
11.75
X/X
16%
6.19
2/1
7%
21.25
2/2
11%
8.83
2/X
7%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-10.4pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.6pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
43%
+11.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
57%
-11.0pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stoke City EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 21%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.25/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.17
+63% / +81% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / +15%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 70%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
21.7 Crosses 12.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stoke City
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Fleetwood Town
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 0.29
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
375 Passes 385
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 5
15 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 3
10.08.2021 Stoke City Stoke City 2-1 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stoke City
1-1
AWAY Fleetwood Town
2.08 xG 0.67
64% Ball Possession 36%
20 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
12 Corners 2
475 Passes 237
89% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stoke City and Fleetwood Town shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Stoke City at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Stoke City had 64% of the ball to Fleetwood Town's 36%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.08 to 0.67.

What was the final score of Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town?

Stoke City 1-1 Fleetwood Town in the England - League Cup on 17/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stoke City vs Fleetwood Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stoke City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Stoke City 51%, draw 28%, Fleetwood Town 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Stoke City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Stoke City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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