Mbarara City 1-0 URA — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 17 Dec 2025

📅17/12/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
34%
3.04
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.59
Over 2.5
34%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.99
No
59%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
4%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.6pp
34%
Draw
29%
+4.4pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.0pp
66%
Under 2.5
59%
+7.2pp
34%
Over 2.5
41%
-7.2pp
41%
BTTS Yes
46%
-4.8pp
59%
BTTS No
54%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mbarara City EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY URA EU Bookmakers 49%
-32% / -32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
0.27/2.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/0.94
-70% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / -26%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
274 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mbarara City
0W-3D-2L
AWAY URA
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-2 HT 0-1 URA URA UGA
28.09.2024 URA URA 1-1 HT 0-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
07.05.2024 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
03.03.2022 Mbarara City Mbarara City 0-0 HT 0-0 URA URA UGA
22.12.2021 URA URA 2-0 HT 1-0 Mbarara City Mbarara City UGA
POST-MATCH Mbarara City vs URA
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mbarara City nicked a narrow win over URA 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 26% / 34% / 40% — and on the day Mbarara City made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, URA led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Mbarara City and 1.00 for URA.

What was the final score of Mbarara City vs URA?

Mbarara City 1-0 URA in the Uganda - Premier League on 17/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mbarara City vs URA?

Before kick-off our model rated an URA win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Mbarara City 26%, draw 34%, URA 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (URA) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (URA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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