Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 18 Jan 2025

Arsenal
2-2 HT 1-0
Aston Villa
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
19%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.03
Over 2.5
59%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.66
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.12
6+ Goals
13%
10.55
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.12 — our 28% vs market 25.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
23%
4.09
X/2
7%
11.5
X/X
9%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
22.1
2/2
6%
9.33
2/X
8%
17.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.1 — our 12% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
60%
-1.1pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
18%
Away Win
18%
+1.0pp
41%
Under 2.5
45%
-4.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
55%
+4.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.4pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Arsenal v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arsenal EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.99/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.97
+8% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -5%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
447 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 74%
38.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
20.3 Crosses 13.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arsenal
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.84 xG 0.70
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
436 Passes 284
87% Pass Accuracy 79%
40 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.08.2024 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-2 HT 0-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
14.04.2024 Arsenal Arsenal 0-2 HT 0-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
09.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 1-0 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
18.02.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 2-4 HT 2-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP
31.08.2022 Arsenal Arsenal 2-1 HT 1-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
19.03.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 0-1 HT 0-1 Arsenal Arsenal İNP

Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arsenal
2-2
AWAY Aston Villa
1.33 xG 1.04
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 1
429 Passes 193
89% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 14
41 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Arsenal vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arsenal and Aston Villa shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Arsenal carried 58% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Arsenal had 66% of the ball to Aston Villa's 34%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 1.33 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arsenal had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Arsenal and 1.00 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Arsenal 2-2 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arsenal win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Arsenal 58%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 18%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Arsenal) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Arsenal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
18 Jan 2025
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