Newcastle United 1-4 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 18 Jan 2025

Newcastle United
1-4 HT 1-2
Bournemouth
📅18/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2024/2025

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.38
Over 2.5
63%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.92
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
16%
6.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.06
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.45
X/2
7%
10.1
X/X
12%
6.22
2/1
6%
19.8
2/2
12%
7.21
2/X
5%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
56%
-5.6pp
22%
Draw
23%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
38%
-0.6pp
63%
Over 2.5
62%
+0.6pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.2pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newcastle United v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newcastle United EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +12%
2.41/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.86
+21% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
399 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
37.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
19.9 Crosses 16.5
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Newcastle United
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Bournemouth
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.55 xG 1.68
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
432 Passes 222
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
33 Box Touches 20
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.08.2024 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
17.02.2024 Newcastle United Newcastle United 2-2 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
11.11.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-0 HT 0-0 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
11.02.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-1 HT 1-1 Newcastle United Newcastle United İNP
20.12.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNLK
17.09.2022 Newcastle United Newcastle United 1-1 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP

Newcastle United 1-4 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newcastle United
1-4
AWAY Bournemouth
0.79 xG 2.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 10
7 Corners 6
310 Passes 243
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
34 Box Touches 36
28 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Newcastle United vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth cruised past Newcastle United 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Newcastle United at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Newcastle United had 55% of the ball to Bournemouth's 45%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.79 to 2.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Newcastle United and 1.17 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

Newcastle United 1-4 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newcastle United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Newcastle United 51%, draw 22%, Bournemouth 27%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newcastle United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newcastle United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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