SPAL 1-1 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.64
Over 2.5
46%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.49
2-3 Goals
44%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
4.22
6+ Goals
9%
21.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.4pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
57%
-2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
43%
+2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.3pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME SPAL EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 25%
-8% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.38/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.60
-2% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -17%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
354 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 285 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME SPAL
4W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestri Levante
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 1-3 HT 1-2 SPAL SPAL İTC
03.03.2024 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 2-3 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
26.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-0 HT 0-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTC
05.10.2023 SPAL SPAL 2-0 HT 2-0 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME SPAL
1-1
AWAY Sestri Levante
55% Ball Possession 45%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH SPAL vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SPAL and Sestri Levante shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was SPAL at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, SPAL had 55% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 45%, shots finished 7-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, SPAL had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for SPAL and 0.75 for Sestri Levante.

What was the final score of SPAL vs Sestri Levante?

SPAL 1-1 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for SPAL vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a SPAL win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split SPAL 47%, draw 29%, Sestri Levante 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (SPAL), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (SPAL) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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