Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Sanjoanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 18 Jan 2025

📅18/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.37
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
69%
-16.4pp
25%
Draw
20%
+5.5pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.1pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 14%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +22%
2.00/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.71
+16% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
425 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Sanjoanense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 1-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
28.01.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 HT 1-1 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
29.10.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 1-1 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-0
AWAY Sanjoanense
58% Ball Possession 42%
9 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Sanjoanense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 58% of the ball to Sanjoanense's 42%, shots finished 9-5.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 1.00 for Sanjoanense.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-0 Sanjoanense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 18/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sanjoanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 53%, draw 25%, Sanjoanense 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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