Pumas UNAM 1-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 18 Jan 2026

📅18/01/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.09
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.25
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.38
6+ Goals
9%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.25 — our 31% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
24%
X/2
5%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.3pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.3pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 32%
+7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.51/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.30
+20% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -11%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
323 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
21.1 Crosses 15.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pumas UNAM
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Leon
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.53 xG 1.37
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 Passes 329
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.10.2025 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
31.03.2025 Leon Leon 1-2 HT 1-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
07.07.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
15.04.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 1-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
01.11.2023 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 0-1 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
22.01.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 2-1 Leon Leon MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pumas UNAM
1-1
AWAY Leon
0.85 xG 1.40
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
420 Passes 320
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 37
21 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pumas UNAM vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pumas UNAM and Leon couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Pumas UNAM had 56% of the ball to Leon's 44%, shots finished 13-17, expected goals 0.85 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Pumas UNAM and 0.83 for Leon.

What was the final score of Pumas UNAM vs Leon?

Pumas UNAM 1-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 18/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pumas UNAM vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Pumas UNAM 46%, draw 28%, Leon 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Pumas UNAM), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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