Galway United 2-3 Derry City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.47
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
41%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.41
Over 2.5
32%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.29
No
63%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
1.9
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
14%
6.5
6+ Goals
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.12
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
15.55
X/1
11%
5.11
X/2
12%
5.55
X/X
15%
3.34
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
26%
4.66
2/X
7%
15.7
Value flag · 2/2 at 4.66 — our 26% vs market 17.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
36%
-7.7pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.7pp
41%
Away Win
32%
+9.4pp
68%
Under 2.5
67%
+1.1pp
32%
Over 2.5
33%
-1.1pp
37%
BTTS Yes
40%
-2.7pp
63%
BTTS No
60%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Galway United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Derry City EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / -7%
0.94/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.01
-11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
267 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
18.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
19.2 Crosses 18.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Galway United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Derry City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.57 xG 1.20
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
154 Passes 374
59% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.03.2025 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-1 Galway United Galway United İRL
30.08.2024 Galway United Galway United 1-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
07.06.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-0 HT 0-0 Galway United Galway United İRL
03.05.2024 Galway United Galway United 0-0 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
29.03.2024 Derry City Derry City 0-1 HT 0-0 Galway United Galway United İRL
15.09.2017 Galway United Galway United 2-1 HT 1-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Galway United
2-3
AWAY Derry City
1.43 xG 2.10
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
156 Passes 267
54% Pass Accuracy 68%
16 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 7
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Galway United vs Derry City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City squeezed past Galway United 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Galway United had 43% of the ball to Derry City's 57%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 1.43 to 2.10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Galway United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Galway United and 0.67 for Derry City.

What was the final score of Galway United vs Derry City?

Galway United 2-3 Derry City in the Ireland - Premier League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Galway United vs Derry City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Galway United 29%, draw 30%, Derry City 41%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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