FC Kuressaare 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 18 Apr 2025

📅18/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.7
No
52%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
24%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-2.3pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.2pp
52%
BTTS No
45%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.37/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.48
+2% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -16%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
298 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Kuressaare
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.10.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
28.07.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
28.05.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-2 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.03.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
11.11.2023 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
17.09.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 HT 1-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Kuressaare
1-0
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare nicked a narrow win over Parnu JK Vaprus 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Parnu JK Vaprus at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, FC Kuressaare had 50% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 50%, shots finished 18-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parnu JK Vaprus led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Kuressaare and 2.00 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Kuressaare 1-0 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 18/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Kuressaare vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Parnu JK Vaprus win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split FC Kuressaare 28%, draw 27%, Parnu JK Vaprus 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Parnu JK Vaprus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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