Brisbane Roar 2-3 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
3.29
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
40%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.73
No
43%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.21
2-3 Goals
44%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
13.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
5.52
1/2
4%
23.95
1/X
7%
14.25
X/1
7%
7.36
X/2
22%
4.57
X/X
12%
4.82
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.0
2/2
14%
2.66
2/X
5%
13.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
27%
+8.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
40%
Away Win
47%
-7.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-3.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+3.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
54%
+3.6pp
43%
BTTS No
46%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 51%
-6% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.37/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.29
-16% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +32%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
344 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 78%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.2
16.8 Crosses 17.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.32
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
357 Passes 458
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.01.2026 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 1-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
31.10.2025 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
11.04.2025 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 0-1 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
11.01.2025 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
06.12.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-4 HT 0-2 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
10.02.2024 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 5-1 HT 4-0 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
2-3
AWAY Melbourne City
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
332 Passes 262
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne City squeezed past Brisbane Roar 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) promised a tight game; Melbourne City found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 55% of the ball to Melbourne City's 45%, shots finished 15-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Brisbane Roar and 1.67 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Brisbane Roar 2-3 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne City win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 36%, draw 24%, Melbourne City 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melbourne City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Melbourne City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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