Trans Narva 1-2 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 18 Apr 2026

📅18/04/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.55
No
46%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.8pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
26%
Away Win
26%
+0.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.1pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.4pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 29%
-16% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +8%
1.32/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.12
-28% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +57%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
366 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
20.09.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
05.07.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 3-2 HT 2-2 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
27.04.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 2-1 HT 1-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
08.03.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-2 HT 0-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
09.11.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
24.08.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 0-1 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
1-2
AWAY FC Kuressaare
66% Ball Possession 34%
24 Total Shots 9
13 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Kuressaare squeezed past Trans Narva 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Trans Narva at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 66% of the ball to FC Kuressaare's 34%, shots finished 24-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Kuressaare led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Trans Narva and 1.33 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

Trans Narva 1-2 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 18/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 49%, draw 24%, FC Kuressaare 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Trans Narva) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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