Rapid Wien 3-1 Sturm Graz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - Bundesliga, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.15
Over 2.5
50%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.29
2-3 Goals
40%
1.92
4-5 Goals
23%
3.09
6+ Goals
12%
9.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.29 — our 25% vs market 19.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.73
1/2
9%
22.9
1/X
5%
13.25
X/1
11%
7.11
X/2
11%
5.18
X/X
17%
5.36
2/1
10%
30.0
2/2
19%
2.9
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
31%
+2.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
39%
Away Win
44%
-4.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
43%
+7.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
57%
-7.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.6pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rapid Wien EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +11%
1.70/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.29
+4% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +5%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
265 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 73%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.4
16.9 Crosses 18.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rapid Wien
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sturm Graz
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.50 xG 1.18
52% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
332 Passes 299
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2025 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-0 HT 1-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
02.11.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-1 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
04.08.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-0 HT 1-0 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
01.05.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 2-1 HT 0-1 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AUK
24.04.2024 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien 1-3 HT 1-3 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz AVU
19.04.2024 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 1-0 HT 0-0 Rapid Wien Rapid Wien AVU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rapid Wien
3-1
AWAY Sturm Graz
1.39 xG 2.39
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
323 Passes 210
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
28 Box Touches 29
17 Crosses 21
POST-MATCH Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rapid Wien got the better of Sturm Graz 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match split (33% / 28% / 39%) promised a tight game; Rapid Wien found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rapid Wien had 57% of the ball to Sturm Graz's 43%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.39 to 2.39 — on chances, Sturm Graz could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sturm Graz led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Rapid Wien and 1.50 for Sturm Graz.

What was the final score of Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Rapid Wien 3-1 Sturm Graz in the Austria - Bundesliga on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rapid Wien 33%, draw 28%, Sturm Graz 39%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sturm Graz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVU More Austria - Bundesliga
18 May 2025
18:00 Blau-Weiss Linz vs Salzburg Analysis →
18:00 Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Wien Analysis →