Sao Paulo vs Gremio Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sao Paulo v Gremio — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Gremio Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Gremio
BR1
2-1
HT 2-1
Sao Paulo
BR1
3-0
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
2-1
HT 1-1
Gremio
BR1
Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo squeezed past Gremio 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Sao Paulo had 60% of the ball to Gremio's 40%, shots finished 20-3, expected goals 2.62 to 1.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sao Paulo's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sao Paulo and 1.33 for Gremio.
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Sao Paulo 2-1 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Gremio?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 48%, draw 24%, Gremio 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.