NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 May 2025

NAC Breda
1-1 HT 1-1
Willem II
📅18/05/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.1
Over 2.5
46%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.95
2-3 Goals
43%
1.83
4-5 Goals
21%
2.95
6+ Goals
9%
9.06
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.95 — our 27% vs market 19.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.24
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.59
X/2
10%
9.72
X/X
8%
5.4
2/1
9%
22.0
2/2
7%
7.2
2/X
8%
14.45
Value flag · X/1 at 4.59 — our 27% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.0pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.9pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+0.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+10.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-10.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.7pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 24%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
1.72/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.50
+4% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
30.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.9
22.1 Crosses 19.1
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.5

NAC Breda vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Willem II
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.90 xG 1.74
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
287 Passes 333
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.11.2024 Willem II Willem II 2-2 HT 0-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
22.12.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-2 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
05.09.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-4 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
03.09.2023 Willem II Willem II 0-3 HT 0-2 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
25.04.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 1-1 HT 0-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
11.12.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-2 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2

NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-1
AWAY Willem II
2.78 xG 1.55
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
447 Passes 325
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and Willem II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 56% of the ball to Willem II's 44%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 2.78 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for NAC Breda and 1.17 for Willem II.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Willem II?

NAC Breda 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 53%, draw 24%, Willem II 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
18 May 2025
15:30 RKC Waalwijk vs Go Ahead Eagles Analysis →
15:30 PEC Zwolle vs Groningen Analysis →
15:30 Fortuna Sittard vs Utrecht Analysis →
15:30 Sparta Rotterdam vs PSV Eindhoven Analysis →
15:30 Ajax vs Twente Analysis →
15:30 AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City Analysis →