AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.28
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
22%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.96
Over 2.5
51%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.73
No
55%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
6.66
2-3 Goals
39%
2.16
4-5 Goals
23%
2.39
6+ Goals
13%
4.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 6.66 — our 25% vs market 10.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.42
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
9%
21.5
X/1
20%
4.07
X/2
6%
21.65
X/X
9%
9.94
2/1
8%
19.45
2/2
11%
17.0
2/X
5%
25.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
74%
-18.9pp
24%
Draw
16%
+7.7pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+11.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
30%
+18.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
70%
-18.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.6pp
55%
BTTS No
46%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Almere City EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +1%
2.18/0.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/2.15
-5% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +2%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
423 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 73%
36.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
20.1 Crosses 14.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AZ Alkmaar
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Almere City
2.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
1.20 xG 0.54
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
418 Passes 217
81% Pass Accuracy 68%
27 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Almere City Almere City 0-1 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
10.02.2024 Almere City Almere City 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
09.12.2023 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 4-1 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
26.10.2017 Almere City Almere City 0-4 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AZ Alkmaar
1-1
AWAY Almere City
1.82 xG 0.43
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
418 Passes 273
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
55 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 16
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar and Almere City shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. AZ Alkmaar carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AZ Alkmaar had 59% of the ball to Almere City's 41%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.82 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.25 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.25 for Almere City.

What was the final score of AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City?

AZ Alkmaar 1-1 Almere City in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AZ Alkmaar vs Almere City?

Before kick-off our model rated a AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AZ Alkmaar 55%, draw 24%, Almere City 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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