Oulu 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 18 Jun 2026

📅18/06/2026 · 🕒12:59 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.07
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.76
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.07 — our 27% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.65
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
17.6
X/1
15%
3.86
X/2
6%
14.6
X/X
10%
6.65
2/1
10%
21.4
2/2
8%
12.25
2/X
6%
20.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
68%
-7.7pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.0pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Oulu EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 16%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
0.86/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.94
-27% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
434 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
15.3 Crosses 12.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Oulu
1W-1D-4L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.94 xG 1.72
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
382 Passes 300
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 22
21 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.10.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-0 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
26.07.2025 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-1 HT 0-0 Oulu Oulu FİN
17.05.2025 Oulu Oulu 0-1 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
19.10.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-2 HT 1-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
01.09.2024 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 0-1 Oulu Oulu FİN
17.05.2024 Oulu Oulu 1-1 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Oulu
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
2.17 xG 1.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
309 Passes 302
75% Pass Accuracy 73%
23 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Oulu edged past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Oulu as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Oulu had 50% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 50%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 2.17 to 1.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, IFK Mariehamn led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Oulu and 1.33 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Oulu 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 18/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Oulu vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a Oulu win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Oulu 61%, draw 22%, IFK Mariehamn 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Oulu), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Oulu) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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