Progreso 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 18 Jul 2026

📅18/07/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.71
Over 2.5
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.85
No
52%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
26%
X/X
16%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+5.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
50%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado EU Bookmakers 50%
-10% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.13/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.51
+8% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / -36%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
302 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
46% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2026 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 2-0 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URU
07.10.2024 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 2-2 HT 2-0 Progreso Progreso URU
21.07.2024 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
31.03.2024 Progreso Progreso 3-1 HT 2-1 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
21.10.2021 Progreso Progreso 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado URU
24.06.2021 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 1-1 HT 0-1 Progreso Progreso URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Maldonado
6 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progreso edged past Deportivo Maldonado 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Deportivo Maldonado at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 6-18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Progreso and 1.17 for Deportivo Maldonado.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Progreso 1-0 Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguay - Premier League on 18/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Before kick-off our model rated an Deportivo Maldonado win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Progreso 31%, draw 27%, Deportivo Maldonado 41%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Maldonado) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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18 Jul 2026
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