Motagua 3-3 Marathon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 18 Aug 2025

📅18/08/2025 · 🕒04:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
10%
X/2
13%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
39%
+1.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+0.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Marathon EU Bookmakers 36%
-1% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +6%
1.29/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.03
-5% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motagua
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Marathon
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
30.03.2025 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 0-0 Motagua Motagua HON
31.01.2025 Motagua Motagua 2-2 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
07.11.2024 Marathon Marathon 2-1 HT 1-1 Motagua Motagua HON
02.09.2024 Motagua Motagua 0-1 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
08.04.2024 Marathon Marathon 1-1 HT 1-0 Motagua Motagua HON
12.02.2024 Motagua Motagua 2-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Motagua vs Marathon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motagua and Marathon shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marathon led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motagua and 1.17 for Marathon.

What was the final score of Motagua vs Marathon?

Motagua 3-3 Marathon in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 18/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs Marathon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motagua win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Motagua 40%, draw 27%, Marathon 33%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motagua) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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