Spezia 1-2 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 18 Oct 2025

Spezia
1-2 HT 1-2
Cesena
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2025/2026

Spezia vs Cesena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.54
Over 2.5
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.91
6+ Goals
10%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.21
1/2
8%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
13%
4.68
X/2
9%
6.55
X/X
15%
3.83
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
15%
5.37
2/X
6%
14.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.0pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-5.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+5.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+6.0pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Spezia v Cesena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Spezia EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 32%
+3% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.60/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.10
+4% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -15%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 80%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
25.1 Crosses 16.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5

Spezia vs Cesena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Spezia
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cesena
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.86 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
294 Passes 300
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.03.2025 Cesena Cesena 0-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
01.09.2024 Spezia Spezia 2-1 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
03.03.2018 Spezia Spezia 1-2 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTB
07.10.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 1-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
17.04.2017 Cesena Cesena 1-0 HT 0-0 Spezia Spezia İTB
19.11.2016 Spezia Spezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Cesena Cesena İTB

Spezia 1-2 Cesena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Spezia
1-2
AWAY Cesena
1.05 xG 2.42
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
382 Passes 265
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
31 Box Touches 16
30 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Spezia vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cesena squeezed past Spezia 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Cesena found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Spezia had 58% of the ball to Cesena's 42%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.05 to 2.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cesena's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Spezia and 0.83 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Spezia vs Cesena?

Spezia 1-2 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Spezia vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Spezia win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Spezia 40%, draw 29%, Cesena 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Spezia), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Spezia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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