Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Perth Glory v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals
Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-0
Perth Glory
AVUS
Perth Glory 2-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics
Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Perth Glory at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Perth Glory had 29% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 71%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.84 to 0.77.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Perth Glory and 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix.
What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Perth Glory 2-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?
Before kick-off our model rated a Perth Glory win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 47%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Perth Glory) went the other way.