Perth Glory 2-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒13:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.15
Over 2.5
56%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.1
2-3 Goals
35%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.93
6+ Goals
12%
8.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.54
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
5%
13.35
X/1
16%
4.71
X/2
10%
7.79
X/X
13%
5.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
21.45
2/2
14%
5.46
2/X
5%
14.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Perth Glory win — 47%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.9pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
44%
Under 2.5
43%
+1.4pp
56%
Over 2.5
57%
-1.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perth Glory EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +17%
1.41/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.83
-19% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
388 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 82%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
20.8 Crosses 13.7
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perth Glory
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 0.84
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 Passes 473
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 23
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2025 Perth Glory Perth Glory 1-1 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUK
04.05.2025 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 0-2 HT 0-1 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
26.10.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-2 HT 0-1 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
24.02.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 0-0 HT 0-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
14.01.2024 Perth Glory Perth Glory 3-4 HT 1-2 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
28.10.2023 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 2-1 HT 1-0 Perth Glory Perth Glory AVUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perth Glory
2-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
0.84 xG 0.77
29% Ball Possession 71%
9 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 1
155 Passes 502
62% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Perth Glory at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Perth Glory had 29% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 71%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.84 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wellington Phoenix led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Perth Glory and 1.50 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Perth Glory 2-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perth Glory vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perth Glory win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Perth Glory 47%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Perth Glory) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Perth Glory) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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