Trans Narva 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.89
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.2pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trans Narva EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 29%
-24% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +6%
0.99/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/0.98
-46% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +76%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trans Narva
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.07.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
11.05.2025 Trans Narva Trans Narva 4-2 HT 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
23.04.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-2 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
27.10.2024 Trans Narva Trans Narva 1-1 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
20.07.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
15.06.2024 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 1-4 HT 0-2 Trans Narva Trans Narva EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trans Narva
1-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
61% Ball Possession 39%
27 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trans Narva and Parnu JK Vaprus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Trans Narva at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Trans Narva had 61% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 39%, shots finished 27-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Trans Narva had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Trans Narva and 0.83 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Trans Narva 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trans Narva vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trans Narva win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Trans Narva 47%, draw 26%, Parnu JK Vaprus 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Trans Narva) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Trans Narva) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
18 Oct 2025
12:30 Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Tammeka Tartu Analysis →
14:30 FC Kuressaare vs FC Levadia Analysis →
19:00 FC Flora Tallinn vs Tallinna Kalev Analysis →