VPS 1-3 Jaro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 18 Oct 2025

VPS
1-3 HT 1-2
Jaro
📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2025

VPS vs Jaro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.53
No
43%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.43
2-3 Goals
42%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
3.0
6+ Goals
9%
8.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.46
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
10%
12.4
X/1
16%
5.81
X/2
7%
6.15
X/X
11%
5.32
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
19%
3.77
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+5.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-5.8pp
57%
BTTS Yes
61%
-4.1pp
43%
BTTS No
39%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v Jaro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Jaro EU Bookmakers 39%
-2% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -2%
0.99/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.87/1.62
-7% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -31%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 82%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
21.6 Crosses 20.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.0

VPS vs Jaro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Jaro
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.61 xG 1.60
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
345 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
30 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.07.2025 Jaro Jaro 2-2 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN
11.06.2025 Jaro Jaro 2-2 HT 1-2 VPS VPS FİK
17.05.2025 VPS VPS 0-0 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FİN
25.01.2025 VPS VPS 2-0 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FLK
23.10.2021 VPS VPS 0-1 HT 0-0 Jaro Jaro FINY
28.07.2021 VPS VPS 2-1 HT 2-0 Jaro Jaro FİN2

VPS 1-3 Jaro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
1-3
AWAY Jaro
3.00 xG 0.93
57% Ball Possession 43%
21 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
372 Passes 260
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH VPS vs Jaro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jaro beat VPS 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was VPS at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, VPS had 57% of the ball to Jaro's 43%, shots finished 21-10, expected goals 3.00 to 0.93 — on chances, VPS could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, VPS had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for VPS and 1.00 for Jaro.

What was the final score of VPS vs Jaro?

VPS 1-3 Jaro in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Jaro?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split VPS 41%, draw 26%, Jaro 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (VPS) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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