Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.02
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
28%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.29
Over 2.5
56%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.5
No
43%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
46%
+2.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
28%
Away Win
30%
-1.2pp
44%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
62%
-5.8pp
43%
BTTS No
38%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 33%
+13% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +20%
2.33/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/0.96
+17% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +34%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 80%
26.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.0
20.7 Crosses 12.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
0W-2D-4L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.15 xG 1.40
57% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
488 Passes 340
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
16.03.2025 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
14.01.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOK
08.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
25.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
08.10.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
0-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.24 xG 2.23
61% Ball Possession 39%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
480 Passes 281
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
37 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AZ Alkmaar got the better of Ajax 2-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ajax had 61% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 39%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.24 to 2.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ajax and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Ajax 0-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Ajax 48%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 28%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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