Alpendorada vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alpendorada v Estrela — Team-Based Signals
Alpendorada 3-1 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics
Alpendorada beat Estrela 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Alpendorada had 44% of the ball to Estrela's 56%, shots finished 15-7.
What was the final score of Alpendorada vs Estrela?
Alpendorada 3-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Cup on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alpendorada vs Estrela?
Before kick-off our model rated an Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alpendorada 28%, draw 21%, Estrela 52%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.