Uniao De Leiria 2-2 Alverca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
37%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
6%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
35%
+5.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
37%
Away Win
39%
-1.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Alverca EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
274 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Alverca
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.11
51% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
358 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.02.2025 Alverca Alverca 2-1 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
23.08.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-1 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR2
22.04.2023 Alverca Alverca 1-2 HT 1-1 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR3
08.01.2023 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 1-2 HT 0-2 Alverca Alverca POR3
21.03.2004 Alverca Alverca 1-4 HT 0-3 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR
02.11.2003 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-1 HT 2-0 Alverca Alverca POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
2-2
AWAY Alverca
39% Ball Possession 61%
4 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 8
6 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Alverca shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 23% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 39% of the ball to Alverca's 61%, shots finished 4-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Uniao De Leiria had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 1.33 for Alverca.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca?

Uniao De Leiria 2-2 Alverca in the Portugal - Cup on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Alverca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 40%, draw 23%, Alverca 37%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Uniao De Leiria), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POK More Portugal - Cup
18 Oct 2025
17:00 Sao Joao Ver vs Famalicao Analysis →
17:00 Alpendorada vs Estrela Analysis →
17:00 Rebordelo vs Nacional Analysis →
17:00 Torreense vs UD Oliveirense Analysis →
17:00 Sporting Covilha vs U. Nogueirense Analysis →
17:15 Bragança vs Sporting Braga Analysis →