Sporting Covilha 1-0 U. Nogueirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 18 Oct 2025

📅18/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
69%
1.33
Draw
15%
4.81
Away
16%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.23
Over 2.5
53%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.9
No
54%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
24%
X/2
4%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
69%
Home Win
71%
-1.4pp
14%
Draw
18%
-3.1pp
16%
Away Win
12%
+4.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.7pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.6pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+2.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY U. Nogueirense EU Bookmakers 15%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+37% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
456 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-0
AWAY U. Nogueirense
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs U. Nogueirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha nicked a narrow win over U. Nogueirense 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sporting Covilha as the likeliest winner at 69%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 51% of the ball to U. Nogueirense's 49%, shots finished 13-9.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs U. Nogueirense?

Sporting Covilha 1-0 U. Nogueirense in the Portugal - Cup on 18/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs U. Nogueirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 69%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 69%, draw 14%, U. Nogueirense 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Covilha), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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