Cagliari 4-1 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 19 Jan 2025

📅19/01/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.89
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.78
Over
50%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2.98
2-3
43%
1.74
4-5
23%
3.68
6+
9%
15.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.52
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.15
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
10%
8.28
X/X
9%
4.47
2/1
9%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.56
2/X
9%
14.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.4pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.1pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari The Market 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce The Market 27%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +17%
1.75/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.41
-20% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +47%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 77%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.9
26.0 Crosses 16.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Lecce
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 2.19
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
304 Passes 301
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
21 Box Touches 29
24 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
31.08.2024 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
05.05.2024 Cagliari Cagliari 1-1 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
06.01.2024 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-0 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
12.07.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 0-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
25.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 0-1 Cagliari Cagliari İTA
26.02.2012 Cagliari Cagliari 1-2 HT 0-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
4-1
AWAY Lecce
2.62 xG 0.45
50% Ball Possession 50%
19 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 1
333 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari ran out comfortable winners over Lecce 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cagliari had 50% of the ball to Lecce's 50%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.62 to 0.45.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cagliari and 1.17 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Lecce?

Cagliari 4-1 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 19/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 42%, draw 28%, Lecce 30%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTA More Italy - Serie A
19 Jan 2025
14:30 Fiorentina vs Torino Analysis →
17:00 Parma vs Venezia Analysis →
20:00 Hellas Verona vs Lazio Analysis →
22:45 Inter vs Empoli Analysis →