South Melbourne 1-2 Hume City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 19 Feb 2026

📅19/02/2026 · 🕒11:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.15
Over 2.5
49%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
17%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-6.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.3pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
43%
+8.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
57%
-8.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Hume City EU Bookmakers 34%
+9% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -9%
1.64/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.72
-9% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
260 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
14.7 Crosses 19.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME South Melbourne
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Hume City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.93 xG 1.95
41% Ball Possession 59%
19 Total Shots 23
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
304 Passes 494
74% Pass Accuracy 83%
30 Box Touches 28
26 Crosses 23
4 Yellow Cards 1
27.06.2025 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-1 HT 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
21.03.2025 Hume City Hume City 1-1 HT 0-1 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
11.09.2024 Hume City Hume City 2-3 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVUK
30.08.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
01.06.2024 Hume City Hume City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
POST-MATCH South Melbourne vs Hume City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hume City squeezed past South Melbourne 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Hume City made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for South Melbourne and 0.67 for Hume City.

What was the final score of South Melbourne vs Hume City?

South Melbourne 1-2 Hume City in the Australia - National Premier League on 19/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for South Melbourne vs Hume City?

Before kick-off our model rated a South Melbourne win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split South Melbourne 39%, draw 26%, Hume City 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (South Melbourne), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (South Melbourne) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVNPL More Australia - National Premier League
19 Feb 2026
12:00 Kahibah vs Lambton Jaffas Analysis →