Hume City 1-1 South Melbourne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - National Premier League, 21 Mar 2025

📅21/03/2025 · 🕒12:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
27%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.86
Over 2.5
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
52%
-5.1pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+3.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+4.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-4.0pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.5pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hume City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY South Melbourne EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.64/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/1.59
-24% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -73% / +21%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
332 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
26.0 Crosses 23.0
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hume City
0W-2D-4L
AWAY South Melbourne
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.95 xG 1.93
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
494 Passes 304
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 30
23 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
11.09.2024 Hume City Hume City 2-3 HT 1-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVUK
30.08.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
01.06.2024 Hume City Hume City 0-1 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
26.02.2024 South Melbourne South Melbourne 1-0 HT 0-0 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
09.07.2023 South Melbourne South Melbourne 2-2 HT 1-1 Hume City Hume City AVNPL
08.04.2023 Hume City Hume City 0-0 HT 0-0 South Melbourne South Melbourne AVNPL
POST-MATCH Hume City vs South Melbourne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hume City and South Melbourne couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Hume City at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, South Melbourne led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Hume City and 1.33 for South Melbourne.

What was the final score of Hume City vs South Melbourne?

Hume City 1-1 South Melbourne in the Australia - National Premier League on 21/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hume City vs South Melbourne?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hume City win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hume City 47%, draw 26%, South Melbourne 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Hume City), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hume City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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