Foggia Calcio 1-2 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.89
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.11
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 28% vs market 25.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
49%
-9.5pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.0pp
31%
Away Win
24%
+7.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Foggia Calcio EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 27%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.40/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.53
-2% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -20%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
323 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Foggia Calcio
5W-1D-0L
AWAY ACR Messina
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
46% Ball Possession 54%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
07.12.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-3 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
23.03.2024 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-3 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
19.11.2023 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 2-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
02.04.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-1 HT 0-1 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
30.11.2022 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
12.02.2022 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-1 HT 1-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Foggia Calcio
1-2
AWAY ACR Messina
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ACR Messina squeezed past Foggia Calcio 2-1 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 29% / 31% — and on the day ACR Messina made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Foggia Calcio had 49% of the ball to ACR Messina's 51%, shots finished 7-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Foggia Calcio had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Foggia Calcio and 0.17 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina?

Foggia Calcio 1-2 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Foggia Calcio vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Foggia Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Foggia Calcio 40%, draw 29%, ACR Messina 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Foggia Calcio), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Foggia Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
19 Apr 2025
19:30 SS Monopoli vs SSC Giugliano Analysis →
19:30 Sorrento Calcio vs Avellino Analysis →
19:30 Casertana vs Crotone Analysis →
19:30 Juventus II vs Cavese Analysis →
19:30 Team Altamura vs Audace Cerignola Analysis →
19:30 Benevento vs Trapani 1905 Analysis →