Sorrento Calcio 1-2 Avellino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
7.78
Draw
25%
4.49
Away
53%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.33
No
63%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.56
6+ Goals
8%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 27% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
6%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
39%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
10%
+11.6pp
25%
Draw
19%
+5.9pp
53%
Away Win
71%
-17.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
39%
-1.6pp
63%
BTTS No
61%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sorrento Calcio EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Avellino EU Bookmakers 75%
-30% / -30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
0.28/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/0.28
-62% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +150%
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
211 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 467 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sorrento Calcio
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Avellino
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.12.2024 Avellino Avellino 1-0 HT 1-0 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio İTC
29.01.2024 Avellino Avellino 0-1 HT 0-0 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio İTC
21.09.2023 Sorrento Calcio Sorrento Calcio 0-1 HT 0-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sorrento Calcio
1-2
AWAY Avellino
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sorrento Calcio vs Avellino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino edged past Sorrento Calcio 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sorrento Calcio had 42% of the ball to Avellino's 58%, shots finished 10-11.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Avellino led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Sorrento Calcio and 0.67 for Avellino.

What was the final score of Sorrento Calcio vs Avellino?

Sorrento Calcio 1-2 Avellino in the Italy - Serie C on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sorrento Calcio vs Avellino?

Before kick-off our model rated an Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Sorrento Calcio 22%, draw 25%, Avellino 53%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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