RB Leipzig 1-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 19 Apr 2025

📅19/04/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.6
No
44%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.75
2-3 Goals
36%
2.06
4-5 Goals
29%
2.56
6+ Goals
16%
5.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1.77
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
15.95
X/1
17%
4.27
X/2
10%
13.0
X/X
10%
7.61
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
18.8
2/2
6%
9.42
2/X
5%
17.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.8 — our 13% vs market 3.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.5pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.0pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.5pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.7pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-2.5pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
2.00/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.68
+6% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
411 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 309 · 77%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
18.3 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Holstein Kiel
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.60 xG 1.17
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
308 Passes 385
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 31
7 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
07.12.2024 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
22.02.2014 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL3
03.09.2013 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
1-1
AWAY Holstein Kiel
1.94 xG 0.80
61% Ball Possession 39%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 7
438 Passes 244
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
24 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Holstein Kiel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig and Holstein Kiel shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had RB Leipzig at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. On goals, both teams to score (56%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 61% of the ball to Holstein Kiel's 39%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.94 to 0.80.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for RB Leipzig and 0.33 for Holstein Kiel.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Holstein Kiel?

RB Leipzig 1-1 Holstein Kiel in the Germany - Bundesliga on 19/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Holstein Kiel?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 57%, draw 21%, Holstein Kiel 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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